Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 64.22%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 15.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.58%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.84%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 64.22% ( | 20.68% ( | 15.1% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.45% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.18% ( | 45.82% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.86% ( | 68.14% ( |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.45% ( | 13.55% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.37% ( | 40.63% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.19% ( | 42.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.88% ( | 79.12% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 11.59% ( 2-0 @ 11.58% ( 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 3-0 @ 7.72% ( 3-1 @ 6.55% ( 4-0 @ 3.86% ( 4-1 @ 3.27% ( 3-2 @ 2.78% ( 5-0 @ 1.54% ( 4-2 @ 1.39% ( 5-1 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 2.79% Total : 64.21% | 1-1 @ 9.84% ( 0-0 @ 5.8% ( 2-2 @ 4.17% ( Other @ 0.88% Total : 20.68% | 0-1 @ 4.92% ( 1-2 @ 4.17% ( 0-2 @ 2.09% ( 1-3 @ 1.18% ( 2-3 @ 1.18% ( Other @ 1.56% Total : 15.1% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 73 | 23 | 50 | 65 |
| 2 | Benfica | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 62 | 20 | 42 | 62 |
| 3 | Porto | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 21 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Braga | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 56 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 46 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 39 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 36 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Nacional | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 29 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
| 16 | AVS | 27 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 17 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 46 | -29 | 15 |
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