

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.88%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 27.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.97%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 44.88% ( | 28.09% ( | 27.03% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.69% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.23% ( | 60.76% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.18% ( | 80.82% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.98% ( | 27.02% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.62% ( | 62.38% ( |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.24% ( | 38.76% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.5% ( | 75.49% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 1-0 @ 13.7% ( 2-0 @ 8.97% ( 2-1 @ 8.5% ( 3-0 @ 3.91% ( 3-1 @ 3.71% ( 3-2 @ 1.76% ( 4-0 @ 1.28% ( 4-1 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 1.85% Total : 44.88% | 1-1 @ 12.98% ( 0-0 @ 10.47% ( 2-2 @ 4.03% ( Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.08% | 0-1 @ 9.93% ( 1-2 @ 6.16% ( 0-2 @ 4.7% ( 1-3 @ 1.95% ( 0-3 @ 1.49% ( 2-3 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 1.54% Total : 27.03% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 78 | 25 | 53 | 72 |
| 2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 74 | 25 | 49 | 72 |
| 3 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 51 | 25 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 62 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 33 |
| 13 | Nacional | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 32 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 30 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 24 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 21 |
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