

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.33%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 13.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 1-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.57%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-2 (3.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 68.33% ( | 18.28% ( | 13.4% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.17% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.38% ( | 38.62% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.08% ( | 60.92% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.69% ( | 10.31% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 66.26% ( | 33.75% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.28% ( | 40.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.7% ( | 77.3% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 2-0 @ 10.83% ( 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 1-0 @ 9.54% ( 3-0 @ 8.21% ( 3-1 @ 7.37% ( 4-0 @ 4.66% ( 4-1 @ 4.19% ( 3-2 @ 3.31% ( 5-0 @ 2.12% ( 5-1 @ 1.9% ( 4-2 @ 1.88% ( Other @ 4.58% Total : 68.32% | 1-1 @ 8.57% ( 2-2 @ 4.37% ( 0-0 @ 4.2% ( 3-3 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.28% | 1-2 @ 3.85% ( 0-1 @ 3.77% ( 0-2 @ 1.7% ( 2-3 @ 1.31% ( 1-3 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 1.61% Total : 13.4% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 |
| R | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 |
| R | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 |
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