J1 League | Gameweek 18
May 25, 2025 at 5am UK
City Light Stadium

Okayama
2 - 2
Machida Zelvia

Ichimi (26', 26'), Kimura (55', 55')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Soma (76', 76'), Duke (81', 81')
Coverage of the J1 League clash between Fagiano Okayama and Machida Zelvia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fagiano Okayama

All competitions
Last Game: Okayama 2-1 Albirex Niigata
Sunday, May 18 at 7am in J1 League

Machida Zelvia

All competitions
Last Game: Machida Zelvia 3-0 Reysol
Saturday, May 17 at 6am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Fagiano Okayama had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.06%) and 1-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Fagiano Okayama win was 1-0 (10.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
Fagiano OkayamaDrawMachida Zelvia
30.2% (-0.041999999999998 -0.04)28.85% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)40.95% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Both teams to score 44.29% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.93% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)62.07% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.21% (-0.029 -0.03)81.79% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Fagiano Okayama Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.08% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)36.91% (0.055 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.3% (-0.053999999999998 -0.05)73.7% (0.054000000000002 0.05)
Machida Zelvia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.21% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)29.79% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.13% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)65.87% (0.00099999999999056 0)
Score Analysis
    Fagiano Okayama 30.19%
    Machida Zelvia 40.94%
    Draw 28.84%
Fagiano OkayamaDrawMachida Zelvia
1-0 @ 10.95%
2-1 @ 6.61% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.46% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.2% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.81% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 1.33% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 1.82%
Total : 30.19%
1-1 @ 13.27%
0-0 @ 10.99% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 4% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 28.84%
0-1 @ 13.31% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-2 @ 8.06% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.04%
0-3 @ 3.26% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-3 @ 3.24%
2-3 @ 1.62% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
1-4 @ 0.98%
Other @ 1.45%
Total : 40.94%