Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 48.69%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 27.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 48.69% ( | 23.62% ( | 27.69% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.75% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.3% ( | 42.7% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.89% ( | 65.1% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.3% ( | 17.7% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.66% ( | 48.34% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.38% ( | 28.62% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.58% ( | 64.42% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 1-0 @ 8.77% ( 2-0 @ 7.59% ( 3-1 @ 5.49% ( 3-0 @ 4.38% ( 3-2 @ 3.43% ( 4-1 @ 2.38% ( 4-0 @ 1.9% ( 4-2 @ 1.49% ( Other @ 3.77% Total : 48.69% | 1-1 @ 10.97% ( 2-2 @ 5.94% ( 0-0 @ 5.06% ( 3-3 @ 1.43% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.62% | 1-2 @ 6.87% ( 0-1 @ 6.34% ( 0-2 @ 3.96% ( 1-3 @ 2.86% ( 2-3 @ 2.48% ( 0-3 @ 1.65% ( Other @ 3.53% Total : 27.69% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
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