

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 73.34%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 10.64%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 3-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.48%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (3.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 73.34% ( | 16.02% ( | 10.64% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.36% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.85% ( | 35.15% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.84% ( | 57.16% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.74% ( | 8.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.15% ( | 28.85% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.07% ( | 42.93% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.77% ( | 79.23% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-0 @ 11.02% 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 3-0 @ 9.17% ( 1-0 @ 8.84% ( 3-1 @ 7.75% 4-0 @ 5.72% ( 4-1 @ 4.83% 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 5-0 @ 2.85% ( 5-1 @ 2.41% 4-2 @ 2.04% 6-0 @ 1.19% ( 5-2 @ 1.02% 6-1 @ 1% Other @ 2.9% Total : 73.33% | 1-1 @ 7.48% ( 2-2 @ 3.94% ( 0-0 @ 3.55% 3-3 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 16.02% | 1-2 @ 3.16% ( 0-1 @ 3% 0-2 @ 1.27% 2-3 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 2.11% Total : 10.64% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
