Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 30.6% ( | 25.73% ( | 43.68% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.6% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.69% ( | 50.31% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.74% ( | 72.26% ( |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.56% ( | 30.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.35% ( | 66.65% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.06% ( | 22.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.28% ( | 56.72% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 8.31% ( 2-1 @ 7.27% ( 2-0 @ 4.94% ( 3-1 @ 2.88% ( 3-2 @ 2.12% ( 3-0 @ 1.96% ( Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.6% | 1-1 @ 12.22% ( 0-0 @ 6.99% ( 2-2 @ 5.35% ( 3-3 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.72% | 0-1 @ 10.28% ( 1-2 @ 9% ( 0-2 @ 7.57% ( 1-3 @ 4.42% ( 0-3 @ 3.71% ( 2-3 @ 2.63% ( 1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0-4 @ 1.37% ( 2-4 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 2.1% Total : 43.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 25 | 24 |
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 20 |
| 5 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Heracles | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Vitesse | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Almere CityAlmere City | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 7 |
| 15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 | Ajax | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 3 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
