

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.28%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 18.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.29%) and 1-0 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
| 61.28% ( | 20.37% ( | 18.34% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.64% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.53% ( | 38.47% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.24% ( | 60.76% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.87% ( | 12.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.3% ( | 37.7% ( |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.59% ( | 34.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.88% ( | 71.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 2-0 @ 9.29% ( 1-0 @ 8.8% ( 3-1 @ 6.97% ( 3-0 @ 6.53% ( 3-2 @ 3.72% ( 4-1 @ 3.68% ( 4-0 @ 3.45% ( 4-2 @ 1.96% ( 5-1 @ 1.55% ( 5-0 @ 1.45% ( Other @ 3.98% Total : 61.28% | 1-1 @ 9.39% ( 2-2 @ 5.29% ( 0-0 @ 4.17% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.37% | 1-2 @ 5.01% ( 0-1 @ 4.45% ( 0-2 @ 2.37% ( 2-3 @ 1.88% ( 1-3 @ 1.78% ( Other @ 2.85% Total : 18.34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Heracles | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | FC VolendamVolendam | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 |
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