Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 50.69%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 25.35% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 0-1 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | 
| 50.69% (  0.1) | 23.96% (  -0.01) | 25.35% (  -0.09) | 
| Both teams to score 55.5% (  -0.03) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 53.97% (  -0.01) | 46.03% (  0) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 31.67% (  -0.01) | 68.33% (  0) | 
| Vitesse Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.81% (  0.04) | 18.19% (  -0.04) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.8% (  0.06) | 49.2% (  -0.06) | 
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 67.85% (  -0.07) | 32.15% (  0.07) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.36% (  -0.08) | 68.64% (  0.08) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Vitesse | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | 
| 1-0 @ 9.97% (  0.01) 2-1 @ 9.64% (  0.01) 2-0 @ 8.49% (  0.02) 3-1 @ 5.48% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 4.83% (  0.02) 3-2 @ 3.11% 4-1 @ 2.33% (  0.01) 4-0 @ 2.06% (  0.01) 4-2 @ 1.32% (  0) Other @ 3.47% Total : 50.69% | 1-1 @ 11.31% 0-0 @ 5.85% (  0) 2-2 @ 5.47% (  -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.18% (  -0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.96% | 0-1 @ 6.64% (  -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.42% (  -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.77% (  -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.43% (  -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.07% (  -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.42% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.61% Total : 25.35% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 24 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 | 
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 53 | 
| 3 | Ajax | 24 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 66 | 23 | 43 | 52 | 
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 61 | 28 | 33 | 49 | 
| 5 | FC Twente | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 44 | 
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 43 | 
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 37 | 
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 32 | 
| 9 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 | 
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 24 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 30 | 
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 29 | 
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 26 | 
| 13 | Vitesse | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 23 | 
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 23 | 
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 21 | 
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 60 | -39 | 20 | 
| 17 | Groningen | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 17 | 
| 18 | Cambuur | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 16 | 
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