

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 59.89%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 59.89% ( | 21.95% ( | 18.15% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.86% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.07% ( | 45.93% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.76% ( | 68.24% ( |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.07% ( | 14.92% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.68% ( | 43.31% ( |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.96% ( | 39.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.24% ( | 75.76% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 1-0 @ 11.08% ( 2-0 @ 10.54% ( 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 3-0 @ 6.68% ( 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 4-0 @ 3.18% ( 4-1 @ 2.99% ( 3-2 @ 2.96% ( 4-2 @ 1.41% ( 5-0 @ 1.21% ( 5-1 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 2.51% Total : 59.89% | 1-1 @ 10.42% ( 0-0 @ 5.83% ( 2-2 @ 4.66% ( 3-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.95% | 0-1 @ 5.48% ( 1-2 @ 4.9% ( 0-2 @ 2.58% ( 1-3 @ 1.54% ( 2-3 @ 1.46% ( Other @ 2.19% Total : 18.15% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 7 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 38 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Ajax | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 25 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 23 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 21 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 20 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 19 |
| 12 | Heracles | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 17 |
| 14 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 17 |
| 15 | Almere CityAlmere City | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 16 |
| 16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 14 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 11 |
| 18 | Vitesse | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 11 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
