

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 65.31%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 15.78%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.66%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
| 65.31% ( | 18.9% ( | 15.78% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.36% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.75% ( | 36.24% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.63% ( | 58.36% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.59% ( | 10.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 66.05% ( | 33.95% ( |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.02% ( | 35.98% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.24% ( | 72.76% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 9.8% ( 2-0 @ 9.58% ( 1-0 @ 8.47% ( 3-1 @ 7.39% ( 3-0 @ 7.23% ( 4-1 @ 4.18% ( 4-0 @ 4.09% ( 3-2 @ 3.78% ( 4-2 @ 2.14% 5-1 @ 1.89% ( 5-0 @ 1.85% ( 5-2 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 3.94% Total : 65.31% | 1-1 @ 8.66% ( 2-2 @ 5.01% ( 0-0 @ 3.74% ( 3-3 @ 1.29% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 18.9% | 1-2 @ 4.43% ( 0-1 @ 3.83% ( 0-2 @ 1.96% ( 2-3 @ 1.71% ( 1-3 @ 1.51% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 15.78% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 27 | 27 |
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 25 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 6 | 26 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Heracles | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
| 9 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 10 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Almere CityAlmere City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 9 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Ajax | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
