

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 52.42%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 23.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.61%) and 0-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-0 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 23.02% | 24.56% | 52.42% |
| Both teams to score 51.05% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.31% | 50.69% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.4% | 72.59% |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.26% | 36.74% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.47% | 73.53% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.69% | 19.3% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.94% | 51.06% |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 7.1% 2-1 @ 5.85% 2-0 @ 3.56% 3-1 @ 1.95% 3-2 @ 1.61% 3-0 @ 1.19% Other @ 1.76% Total : 23.02% | 1-1 @ 11.68% 0-0 @ 7.09% 2-2 @ 4.81% Other @ 0.98% Total : 24.56% | 0-1 @ 11.66% 1-2 @ 9.61% 0-2 @ 9.59% 1-3 @ 5.27% 0-3 @ 5.26% 2-3 @ 2.64% 1-4 @ 2.17% 0-4 @ 2.16% 2-4 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.98% Total : 52.42% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 18 |
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 14 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Heracles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | PEC Zwolle | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Heerenveen | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 6 |
| 13 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Ajax | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 1 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 1 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
