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Europa League

AZ Alkmaar
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 13, 2025 at 8pm UK
AFAS Stadion
Galatasaray

AZ
4 - 1
Galatasaray

Mijnans (12'), Parrott (37' pen.), Clasie (57'), Moller Wolfe (66')
Moller Wolfe (48'), Clasie (75')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Sallai (20')
Ayhan (11'), Bardakci (43'), Morata (57')
Ayhan (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Galatasaray, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: AZ 2-0 PEC Zwolle
Sunday, February 9 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Galatasaray

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Gaziantep 0-1 Galatasaray
Monday, February 3 at 5pm in Turkish Super Lig

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 47.05%. A win for Galatasaray had a probability of 29.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Galatasaray win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawGalatasaray
47.05% (-0.85 -0.85)23.36% (0.223 0.22)29.58% (0.622 0.62)
Both teams to score 61.09% (-0.376 -0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.77% (-0.682 -0.68)40.22% (0.675 0.67)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.4% (-0.707 -0.71)62.59% (0.702 0.7)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.62% (-0.586 -0.59)17.37% (0.58 0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.21% (-1.033 -1.03)47.78% (1.026 1.03)
Galatasaray Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.94% (0.061999999999998 0.06)26.06% (-0.068999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.89% (0.088999999999999 0.09)61.1% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 47.05%
    Galatasaray 29.58%
    Draw 23.35%
AZ AlkmaarDrawGalatasaray
2-1 @ 9.33% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-0 @ 7.92% (0.095 0.09)
2-0 @ 6.93% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-1 @ 5.44% (-0.135 -0.14)
3-0 @ 4.05% (-0.108 -0.11)
3-2 @ 3.66% (-0.083 -0.08)
4-1 @ 2.38% (-0.107 -0.11)
4-0 @ 1.77% (-0.083 -0.08)
4-2 @ 1.6% (-0.068 -0.07)
Other @ 3.98%
Total : 47.05%
1-1 @ 10.65% (0.15 0.15)
2-2 @ 6.27% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.53% (0.14 0.14)
3-3 @ 1.64% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 23.35%
1-2 @ 7.17% (0.115 0.12)
0-1 @ 6.09% (0.199 0.2)
0-2 @ 4.09% (0.142 0.14)
1-3 @ 3.21% (0.057 0.06)
2-3 @ 2.81% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 1.84% (0.067 0.07)
1-4 @ 1.08% (0.021 0.02)
2-4 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 29.58%

How you voted: AZ vs Galatasaray

AZ Alkmaar
40.9%
Draw
19.3%
Galatasaray
39.8%
171
Head to Head
Nov 28, 2024 5.45pm
League Stage
AZ
1-1
Galatasaray
Mijnans (2')
van Bommel (6'), Parrott (73'), Smit (88')
Smit (90+2')
Osimhen (43')
Mertens (84'), Osimhen (88'), Sanchez (89'), Akgun (90+6')
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