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Europa League

AZ Alkmaar
Europa League | League Stage
Nov 7, 2024 at 8pm UK
AFAS Stadion

AZ
3 - 1
Fenerbahce

Daal (59'), Smit (75'), Kasius (87')
Kwakman (51'), Daal (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
En-Nesyri (70')
Saint-Maximin (49'), Yuksek (54'), Becao (63'), Fred (84'), Osayi-Samuel (86'), Dzeko (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Fenerbahce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Feyenoord 3-2 AZ
Saturday, November 2 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Fenerbahce

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahce
Sunday, November 3 at 4pm in Turkish Super Lig

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Fenerbahce had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Fenerbahce win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawFenerbahce
39.4% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)25.81% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)34.78% (0.073999999999998 0.07)
Both teams to score 54.69% (0.022000000000006 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.49% (0.023000000000003 0.02)49.5% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.46% (0.021000000000001 0.02)71.53% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.27% (-0.024999999999991 -0.02)24.73% (0.028000000000002 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.72% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)59.28% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Fenerbahce Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.66% (0.056000000000012 0.06)27.33% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.21% (0.071000000000005 0.07)62.78% (-0.068000000000005 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 39.4%
    Fenerbahce 34.78%
    Draw 25.8%
AZ AlkmaarDrawFenerbahce
1-0 @ 9.44% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
2-1 @ 8.56% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.6% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.99% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.07% (-0.01 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.59% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.39% (-0.004 -0)
4-0 @ 1.07% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
4-2 @ 0.9% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 39.4%
1-1 @ 12.24% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.76% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1.12% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.8%
0-1 @ 8.77% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.94% (0.011 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.69% (0.012 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.44% (0.01 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.46% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.4% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-4 @ 1.11% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 34.78%

How you voted: AZ vs Fenerbahce

AZ Alkmaar
20.7%
Draw
11.4%
Fenerbahce
67.9%
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