Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.56%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 21.44% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.22%) and 1-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 1-2 (5.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Elfsborg
57.56% ( 0.06)	21% ( -0.02)	21.44% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 60.81% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.23% (

0.03)

36.77% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.07% (

0.04)

58.94% (

-0.03)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.36% (

0.03)

12.64% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.21% (

0.06)

38.79% (

-0.05)

Elfsborg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.61% (

-0.02)

30.39% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.42% (

-0.02)

66.59% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 57.56%

Elfsborg 21.44%

Draw 21%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Elfsborg
2-1 @ 9.79% 2-0 @ 8.22% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.95% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.02% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.49% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.08% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0) Other @ 4.04% Total : 57.56%	1-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 0.27% Total : 21%	1-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.58% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0) Other @ 2.87% Total : 21.44%