

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 69.23%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 12.54%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.29%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.63%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-0 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | Ajax |
| 12.54% ( | 18.22% ( | 69.23% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.72% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.48% ( | 40.51% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.1% ( | 62.89% ( |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.73% ( | 43.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.49% ( | 79.51% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.39% ( | 10.61% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.59% ( | 34.4% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | Ajax |
| 1-0 @ 3.84% ( 2-1 @ 3.61% ( 2-0 @ 1.61% ( 3-2 @ 1.13% ( 3-1 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 1.33% Total : 12.54% | 1-1 @ 8.63% ( 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 2-2 @ 4.05% ( Other @ 0.95% Total : 18.22% | 0-2 @ 11.54% ( 0-1 @ 10.29% ( 1-2 @ 9.68% ( 0-3 @ 8.64% ( 1-3 @ 7.24% ( 0-4 @ 4.85% ( 1-4 @ 4.06% ( 2-3 @ 3.03% ( 0-5 @ 2.18% ( 1-5 @ 1.82% ( 2-4 @ 1.7% ( Other @ 4.2% Total : 69.22% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 89 | 34 | 55 | 67 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 68 | 32 | 36 | 62 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 47 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 36 |
| 10 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 35 |
| 11 | Groningen | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 35 |
| 12 | Heracles | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 35 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 33 |
| 14 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 32 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 16 | Willem II | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 50 | -20 | 24 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 20 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 35 | 62 | -27 | 19 |
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