

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 58.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 18.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.24%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Groningen | Draw | Heracles |
| 58.85% ( | 23.12% ( | 18.03% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.05% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.09% ( | 50.91% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.21% ( | 72.79% ( |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83% ( | 16.99% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.89% ( | 47.11% ( |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.88% ( | 42.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.46% ( | 78.53% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Groningen | Draw | Heracles |
| 1-0 @ 12.68% ( 2-0 @ 11.24% ( 2-1 @ 9.72% ( 3-0 @ 6.64% ( 3-1 @ 5.74% ( 4-0 @ 2.94% ( 4-1 @ 2.55% ( 3-2 @ 2.48% ( 4-2 @ 1.1% ( 5-0 @ 1.04% ( 5-1 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 1.81% Total : 58.85% | 1-1 @ 10.96% ( 0-0 @ 7.16% ( 2-2 @ 4.2% ( Other @ 0.79% Total : 23.11% | 0-1 @ 6.19% ( 1-2 @ 4.74% ( 0-2 @ 2.68% ( 1-3 @ 1.37% ( 2-3 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 1.84% Total : 18.03% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
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