

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 65.25%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for NEC had a probability of 15.49%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 1-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.97%), while for a NEC win it was 1-2 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | NEC |
| 65.25% ( | 19.27% ( | 15.49% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.25% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.38% ( | 38.63% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.08% ( | 60.93% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.9% ( | 11.1% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.5% ( | 35.5% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.15% ( | 37.85% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.38% ( | 74.62% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | NEC |
| 2-0 @ 10.15% ( 2-1 @ 9.86% ( 1-0 @ 9.24% ( 3-0 @ 7.44% ( 3-1 @ 7.23% ( 4-0 @ 4.09% ( 4-1 @ 3.97% ( 3-2 @ 3.51% ( 4-2 @ 1.93% ( 5-0 @ 1.8% ( 5-1 @ 1.75% ( Other @ 4.3% Total : 65.25% | 1-1 @ 8.97% ( 2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0-0 @ 4.2% ( 3-3 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 0.17% Total : 19.27% | 1-2 @ 4.36% ( 0-1 @ 4.08% ( 0-2 @ 1.98% ( 2-3 @ 1.55% ( 1-3 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 2.1% Total : 15.49% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
