Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
