

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 47.72%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 30.62% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.86%) and 0-1 (5.73%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 30.62% ( | 21.66% ( | 47.72% ( |
| Both teams to score 68.15% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.74% ( | 31.26% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.31% ( | 52.69% ( |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.02% ( | 20.98% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.26% ( | 53.74% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.24% ( | 13.76% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.95% ( | 41.05% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 6.98% ( 1-0 @ 4.51% ( 3-1 @ 3.63% ( 3-2 @ 3.6% ( 2-0 @ 3.52% ( 3-0 @ 1.83% ( 4-1 @ 1.42% ( 4-2 @ 1.41% ( 4-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.79% Total : 30.62% | 1-1 @ 8.94% ( 2-2 @ 6.92% ( 0-0 @ 2.89% ( 3-3 @ 2.38% ( Other @ 0.52% Total : 21.66% | 1-2 @ 8.87% ( 1-3 @ 5.86% ( 0-1 @ 5.73% ( 0-2 @ 5.68% ( 2-3 @ 4.58% ( 0-3 @ 3.75% ( 1-4 @ 2.91% ( 2-4 @ 2.27% ( 0-4 @ 1.86% ( 3-4 @ 1.18% ( 1-5 @ 1.15% ( 2-5 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 2.98% Total : 47.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 55 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 35 | 20 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 38 |
| 6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 35 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 32 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 30 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 29 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Macarthur | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
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