Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 47.29%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 25.38%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.42%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Hartlepool United |
| 47.29% ( | 27.33% ( | 25.38% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.51% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.89% ( | 59.11% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.45% ( | 79.55% ( |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.94% ( | 25.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.26% ( | 59.74% ( |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.73% ( | 39.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.03% ( | 75.97% |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Hartlepool United |
| 1-0 @ 13.61% 2-0 @ 9.42% ( 2-1 @ 8.81% 3-0 @ 4.35% 3-1 @ 4.06% 3-2 @ 1.9% 4-0 @ 1.5% ( 4-1 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 2.22% Total : 47.28% | 1-1 @ 12.73% 0-0 @ 9.84% ( 2-2 @ 4.12% Other @ 0.64% Total : 27.33% | 0-1 @ 9.2% ( 1-2 @ 5.95% 0-2 @ 4.3% ( 1-3 @ 1.85% 0-3 @ 1.34% 2-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 1.46% Total : 25.38% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 37 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 74 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 69 |
| 3 | Stevenage | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 67 |
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 38 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 58 | 36 | 22 | 66 |
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 32 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Salford City | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 60 | 43 | 17 | 62 |
| 7 | Bradford CityBradford | 37 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 61 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 58 |
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 56 |
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 55 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 51 |
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 51 |
| 13 | Walsall | 37 | 11 | 16 | 10 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 49 |
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 49 |
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 47 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 44 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 43 |
| 19 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 42 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 38 |
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 38 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 37 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 36 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 38 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 41 | 67 | -26 | 32 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 38 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 26 |
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