Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.96%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.26%) and 1-2 (8.2%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (10.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gillingham | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 29.49% ( | 28.55% ( | 41.96% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.82% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.72% ( | 61.28% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.8% ( | 81.2% ( |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.97% | 37.03% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.18% ( | 73.82% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.17% ( | 28.83% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.31% ( | 64.69% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gillingham | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 10.6% ( 2-1 @ 6.55% ( 2-0 @ 5.27% ( 3-1 @ 2.17% 3-0 @ 1.74% ( 3-2 @ 1.35% Other @ 1.8% Total : 29.48% | 1-1 @ 13.19% 0-0 @ 10.67% ( 2-2 @ 4.07% ( Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.54% | 0-1 @ 13.27% ( 0-2 @ 8.26% ( 1-2 @ 8.2% ( 0-3 @ 3.42% ( 1-3 @ 3.4% ( 2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0-4 @ 1.06% ( 1-4 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 1.59% Total : 41.96% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 43 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 87 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 44 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 60 | 40 | 20 | 80 |
| 3 | Stevenage | 43 | 21 | 13 | 9 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 76 |
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 44 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 61 | 36 | 25 | 75 |
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 44 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 63 | 39 | 24 | 75 |
| 6 | Salford City | 44 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 69 | 51 | 18 | 72 |
| 7 | Bradford CityBradford | 43 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 72 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 72 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 44 | 18 | 8 | 18 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 62 |
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 43 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 58 |
| 11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 57 |
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 57 |
| 13 | Grimsby Town | 43 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 55 |
| 14 | Newport CountyNewport | 43 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 53 |
| 15 | Gillingham | 44 | 13 | 13 | 18 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 52 |
| 16 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 44 | 15 | 7 | 22 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 52 |
| 17 | Walsall | 44 | 11 | 18 | 15 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 51 |
| 18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 42 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 41 | 53 | -12 | 51 |
| 19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 44 | 12 | 13 | 19 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 49 |
| 20 | AFC Wimbledon | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 47 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 43 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 53 | 64 | -11 | 45 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 44 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 45 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 44 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 48 | 76 | -28 | 39 |
| R | Rochdale | 44 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 34 |
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