Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 32.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Stevenage |
| 40.29% ( | 27.7% ( | 32.01% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.1% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.39% ( | 57.61% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.62% ( | 78.38% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72% ( | 28% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.35% ( | 63.65% ( |
| Stevenage Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.8% ( | 33.2% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.2% ( | 69.8% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Stevenage |
| 1-0 @ 11.83% ( 2-1 @ 8.3% ( 2-0 @ 7.53% ( 3-1 @ 3.52% ( 3-0 @ 3.2% ( 3-2 @ 1.94% ( 4-1 @ 1.12% ( 4-0 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 1.82% Total : 40.28% | 1-1 @ 13.04% 0-0 @ 9.3% ( 2-2 @ 4.58% ( Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.7% | 0-1 @ 10.25% ( 1-2 @ 7.19% ( 0-2 @ 5.65% ( 1-3 @ 2.65% ( 0-3 @ 2.08% ( 2-3 @ 1.68% ( Other @ 2.51% Total : 32.01% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | Leyton Orient | 42 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 56 | 29 | 27 | 84 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 43 | 21 | 14 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 77 |
| 3 | Stevenage | 42 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 76 |
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 60 | 36 | 24 | 72 |
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 43 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 72 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 42 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 36 | 18 | 71 |
| 7 | Salford City | 43 | 20 | 9 | 14 | 66 | 49 | 17 | 69 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 42 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 67 | 51 | 16 | 69 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 43 | 18 | 8 | 17 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 62 |
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 43 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 57 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 42 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 53 | 50 | 3 | 55 |
| 12 | Grimsby Town | 42 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 55 |
| 13 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 43 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 54 |
| 14 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 43 | 15 | 7 | 21 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 52 |
| 15 | Walsall | 43 | 11 | 18 | 14 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 51 |
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 41 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 51 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 43 | 13 | 12 | 18 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 51 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 42 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 50 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 43 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 47 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 43 | 11 | 13 | 19 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 46 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 42 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 45 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 43 | 10 | 12 | 21 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 42 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 43 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 74 | -26 | 39 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 43 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 41 | 67 | -26 | 34 |
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