| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Northampton Town | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Stevenage | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Barrow | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Mansfield Town | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Carlisle United | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 4 | -1 | 5 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stevenage | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 39.99% ( | 27.7% ( | 32.31% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.18% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.46% ( | 57.54% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.67% ( | 78.33% ( |
| Stevenage Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.86% ( | 28.14% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.18% ( | 63.82% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.05% ( | 32.95% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.47% ( | 69.53% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Stevenage | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 11.75% ( 2-1 @ 8.28% ( 2-0 @ 7.45% ( 3-1 @ 3.5% ( 3-0 @ 3.15% ( 3-2 @ 1.94% ( 4-1 @ 1.11% 4-0 @ 1% ( Other @ 1.8% Total : 39.98% | 1-1 @ 13.05% ( 0-0 @ 9.27% ( 2-2 @ 4.59% ( Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.7% | 0-1 @ 10.29% ( 1-2 @ 7.25% ( 0-2 @ 5.71% ( 1-3 @ 2.68% ( 0-3 @ 2.12% ( 2-3 @ 1.7% ( Other @ 2.56% Total : 32.31% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 36 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 73 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 36 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 67 |
| 3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 37 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 66 |
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 36 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 58 | 35 | 23 | 65 |
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 60 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 36 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 60 |
| 7 | Salford City | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 59 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 56 |
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 55 |
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 52 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 51 |
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 36 | 15 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 50 |
| 13 | Walsall | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 48 |
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 48 |
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 45 |
| 16 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 |
| 18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 36 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 42 |
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 38 |
| 20 | Gillingham | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 38 |
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 36 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 32 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 66 | -26 | 31 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 26 |
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