Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 39.37%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 31.82% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.91%) and 0-2 (7.62%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (11.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Colchester United | 
| 31.82% (  -0.02) | 28.81% (  0) | 39.37% (  0.01) | 
| Both teams to score 44.92% (  -0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 38.46% (  -0.02) | 61.54% (  0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 18.6% (  -0.01) | 81.39% (  0.01) | 
| Hartlepool United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 64.59% (  -0.02) | 35.41% (  0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.83% (  -0.02) | 72.17% (  0.02) | 
| Colchester United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.55% (  -0) | 30.45% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.34% (  -0) | 66.65% (  -0) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Colchester United | 
| 1-0 @ 11.19% 2-1 @ 6.91% (  -0) 2-0 @ 5.81% (  -0) 3-1 @ 2.39% (  -0) 3-0 @ 2.01% (  -0) 3-2 @ 1.42% (  -0) Other @ 2.08% Total : 31.82% | 1-1 @ 13.31% 0-0 @ 10.78% (  0.01) 2-2 @ 4.11% (  -0) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.81% | 0-1 @ 12.82% (  0.01) 1-2 @ 7.91% 0-2 @ 7.62% (  0) 1-3 @ 3.14% 0-3 @ 3.02% (  0) 2-3 @ 1.63% 1-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.29% Total : 39.37% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 35 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 72 | 
| 2 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 56 | 34 | 22 | 61 | 
| 3 | Stevenage | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 60 | 
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 59 | 
| 5 | Bradford CityBradford | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 57 | 
| 6 | Salford City | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 56 | 
| 7 | Stockport CountyStockport | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | 
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 51 | 
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 35 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 51 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 49 | 
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 48 | 
| 13 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 33 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 47 | 
| 14 | Walsall | 32 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 43 | 
| 15 | AFC Wimbledon | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 | 
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 33 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 39 | 
| 17 | Grimsby Town | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 38 | 
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 37 | 
| 19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 35 | 
| 20 | Gillingham | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 34 | 
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 32 | 
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 35 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 29 | 
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 26 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 35 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 25 | 
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