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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 56.56%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 19.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.48%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Hartlepool United |
56.56% ( 0.08) | 24.38% ( 0) | 19.06% ( -0.08) |
Both teams to score 46.17% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.64% ( -0.12) | 54.36% ( 0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.26% ( -0.1) | 75.74% ( 0.1) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.9% ( -0.01) | 19.1% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.27% ( -0.02) | 50.73% ( 0.02) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.08% ( -0.17) | 42.92% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.78% ( -0.14) | 79.22% ( 0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Hartlepool United |
1-0 @ 13.57% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.17% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.94% Total : 56.55% | 1-1 @ 11.48% 0-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.68% Total : 24.38% | 0-1 @ 6.94% 1-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.84% Total : 19.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leyton Orient | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 70 |
2 | Stevenage | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 57 |
3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 55 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 54 |
5 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 52 |
6 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 52 |
7 | Salford City | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 49 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 29 | 8 | 48 |
9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 47 |
10 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 31 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 46 |
11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 45 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 44 |
13 | Walsall | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 42 |
14 | AFC Wimbledon | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 42 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 41 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 37 |
17 | Grimsby Town | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 37 |
18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 31 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 37 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 35 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 30 |
21 | Gillingham | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 30 |
22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 33 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 27 |
23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 26 |
24 | Rochdale | 33 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 21 |
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