Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Northampton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Northampton Town.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 47.29% ( | 24.81% ( | 27.9% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.92% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.18% ( | 47.82% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30% ( | 70% ( |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.72% ( | 20.27% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.37% ( | 52.63% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.89% ( | 31.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.57% ( | 67.43% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Northampton Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 10.06% ( 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 2-0 @ 8.03% ( 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 3-0 @ 4.27% ( 3-2 @ 2.91% ( 4-1 @ 1.99% ( 4-0 @ 1.7% ( 4-2 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 2.79% Total : 47.28% | 1-1 @ 11.75% ( 0-0 @ 6.31% ( 2-2 @ 5.48% ( 3-3 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.81% | 0-1 @ 7.36% ( 1-2 @ 6.86% ( 0-2 @ 4.3% ( 1-3 @ 2.67% ( 2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0-3 @ 1.67% ( Other @ 2.9% Total : 27.9% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 41 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 56 | 27 | 29 | 84 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 42 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 55 | 38 | 17 | 74 |
| 3 | Stevenage | 41 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 73 |
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 42 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 58 | 34 | 24 | 71 |
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 42 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 71 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 41 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 54 | 35 | 19 | 71 |
| 7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 41 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 65 | 50 | 15 | 66 |
| 8 | Salford City | 42 | 19 | 9 | 14 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 66 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 42 | 18 | 8 | 16 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 62 |
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 42 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 57 |
| 11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 53 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 41 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 52 |
| 13 | Grimsby Town | 41 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 52 |
| 14 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 42 | 15 | 7 | 20 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 52 |
| 15 | Walsall | 42 | 11 | 18 | 13 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 51 |
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 41 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 51 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 41 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 50 |
| 18 | Gillingham | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 48 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 43 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 47 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 42 | 11 | 12 | 19 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 45 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 41 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 49 | 61 | -12 | 42 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 42 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 41 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 42 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 39 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 42 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 39 | 65 | -26 | 33 |
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