

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salford City win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salford City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Salford City | Draw | Carlisle United | 
| 41.93% (  0.02) | 26.28% (  -0) | 31.79% (  -0.02) | 
| Both teams to score 52.37% (  -0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 47.86% (  -0.01) | 52.14% (  0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 26.14% (  -0.01) | 73.86% (  0.01) | 
| Salford City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.4% (  0.01) | 24.6% (  -0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.9% (  0.01) | 59.11% (  -0.01) | 
| Carlisle United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.45% (  -0.02) | 30.55% (  0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.23% (  -0.02) | 66.77% (  0.02) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Salford City | Draw | Carlisle United | 
| 1-0 @ 10.53% 2-1 @ 8.76% (  0) 2-0 @ 7.39% (  0) 3-1 @ 4.1% (  0) 3-0 @ 3.45% (  0) 3-2 @ 2.43% 4-1 @ 1.44% (  0) 4-0 @ 1.21% (  0) Other @ 2.61% Total : 41.92% | 1-1 @ 12.49% 0-0 @ 7.52% (  0) 2-2 @ 5.2% (  -0) 3-3 @ 0.96% (  -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.27% | 0-1 @ 8.91% (  -0) 1-2 @ 7.41% (  -0) 0-2 @ 5.29% (  -0) 1-3 @ 2.93% (  -0) 0-3 @ 2.09% (  -0) 2-3 @ 2.05% (  -0) Other @ 3.11% Total : 31.79% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 45 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 90 | 
| P | Stevenage | 45 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 60 | 39 | 21 | 82 | 
| 3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 45 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 80 | 
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 78 | 
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 45 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 65 | 42 | 23 | 75 | 
| 6 | Salford City | 45 | 22 | 9 | 14 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 75 | 
| 7 | Bradford CityBradford | 44 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 58 | 39 | 19 | 75 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 55 | 15 | 72 | 
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 8 | 19 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 62 | 
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 59 | 54 | 5 | 58 | 
| 11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 58 | 
| 12 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 58 | 
| 13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 57 | 
| 14 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 56 | 
| 15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 55 | 
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 44 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 54 | 
| 17 | Walsall | 45 | 11 | 19 | 15 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 52 | 
| 18 | Gillingham | 45 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 52 | 
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 51 | 
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 12 | 13 | 20 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 49 | 
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 48 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 46 | 
| R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 45 | 9 | 15 | 21 | 51 | 77 | -26 | 42 | 
| R | Rochdale | 45 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 37 | 
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