Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tranmere Rovers win with a probability of 47.69%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 26.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tranmere Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Tranmere Rovers | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 47.69% ( | 25.68% ( | 26.63% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.22% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.78% ( | 52.22% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.08% ( | 73.92% ( |
| Tranmere Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.1% ( | 21.9% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.84% ( | 55.16% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.58% ( | 34.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.87% ( | 71.13% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tranmere Rovers | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 11.44% ( 2-1 @ 9.27% ( 2-0 @ 8.69% ( 3-1 @ 4.69% ( 3-0 @ 4.4% ( 3-2 @ 2.5% ( 4-1 @ 1.78% ( 4-0 @ 1.67% ( 4-2 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.28% Total : 47.68% | 1-1 @ 12.21% ( 0-0 @ 7.54% ( 2-2 @ 4.94% ( Other @ 0.99% Total : 25.68% | 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 1-2 @ 6.51% ( 0-2 @ 4.29% ( 1-3 @ 2.32% ( 2-3 @ 1.76% ( 0-3 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 2.2% Total : 26.63% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 39 | 23 | 11 | 5 | 52 | 25 | 27 | 80 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 40 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 53 | 37 | 16 | 70 |
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 40 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 69 |
| 4 | Stevenage | 39 | 19 | 12 | 8 | 53 | 36 | 17 | 69 |
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 40 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 67 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 39 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 65 |
| 7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 39 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 63 | 48 | 15 | 64 |
| 8 | Salford City | 40 | 18 | 9 | 13 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 63 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 40 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 58 |
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 40 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 57 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 39 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 40 | 15 | 6 | 19 | 40 | 55 | -15 | 51 |
| 13 | Walsall | 40 | 11 | 17 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 50 |
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 40 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 50 |
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 39 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 48 |
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 39 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 48 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 39 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 47 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 41 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 47 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 47 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 39 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 40 |
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 40 | 9 | 12 | 19 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 39 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 40 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 38 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 40 | 8 | 14 | 18 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 38 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 40 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 32 |
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