Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Grimsby Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 39.7% ( | 27.32% ( | 32.98% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.5% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.04% ( | 55.96% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.95% ( | 77.06% ( |
| Grimsby Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.45% ( | 27.55% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.94% ( | 63.06% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.32% ( | 31.68% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.91% ( | 68.09% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Grimsby Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 11.25% ( 2-1 @ 8.34% ( 2-0 @ 7.25% ( 3-1 @ 3.58% ( 3-0 @ 3.12% ( 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 4-1 @ 1.16% ( 4-0 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 1.95% Total : 39.7% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0-0 @ 8.73% ( 2-2 @ 4.79% ( Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.31% | 0-1 @ 10.03% ( 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0-2 @ 5.77% ( 1-3 @ 2.85% ( 0-3 @ 2.21% ( 2-3 @ 1.84% ( Other @ 2.86% Total : 32.98% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 35 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 72 |
| 2 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 56 | 34 | 22 | 61 |
| 3 | Stevenage | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 60 |
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 59 |
| 5 | Bradford CityBradford | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 57 |
| 6 | Salford City | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 56 |
| 7 | Stockport CountyStockport | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 |
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 51 |
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 35 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 51 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 49 |
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 48 |
| 13 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 33 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 47 |
| 14 | Walsall | 32 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 43 |
| 15 | AFC Wimbledon | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 33 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 39 |
| 17 | Grimsby Town | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 38 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 37 |
| 19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 35 |
| 20 | Gillingham | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 34 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 32 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 35 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 29 |
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 26 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 35 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 25 |
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