| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Bradford City | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Carlisle United | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 6 | -5 | 2 |
| 23 | Hartlepool United | 6 | -9 | 2 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 43.88%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 29.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Rochdale |
| 43.88% ( | 26.93% ( | 29.18% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.18% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.32% ( | 55.67% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.17% ( | 76.82% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.8% ( | 25.2% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.07% ( | 59.93% ( |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.75% ( | 34.25% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.05% ( | 70.95% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Rochdale |
| 1-0 @ 11.89% ( 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 2-0 @ 8.2% ( 3-1 @ 4.04% ( 3-0 @ 3.77% ( 3-2 @ 2.16% ( 4-1 @ 1.39% ( 4-0 @ 1.3% ( Other @ 2.35% Total : 43.88% | 1-1 @ 12.74% ( 0-0 @ 8.63% ( 2-2 @ 4.71% ( Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.92% | 0-1 @ 9.25% ( 1-2 @ 6.83% ( 0-2 @ 4.95% ( 1-3 @ 2.44% ( 0-3 @ 1.77% ( 2-3 @ 1.68% ( Other @ 2.27% Total : 29.18% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 57 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 49 |
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 26 | 17 | 48 |
| 5 | Salford City | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 28 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 42 |
| 8 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 41 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 40 |
| 10 | AFC Wimbledon | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 39 |
| 11 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 38 |
| 13 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 38 |
| 14 | Walsall | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 37 |
| 15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 |
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 30 |
| 18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 30 |
| 19 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 26 |
| 20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 25 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 24 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 22 |
| 23 | Gillingham | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 21 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
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