Napoli and Roma have conceded the fewest shots on target in Serie A this season, so a goalfest is perhaps not in store on Sunday evening. They are also the teams to have leaked the fewest goals during the second half (only seven apiece), which suggests an early strike for the red-hot hosts could be enough to win it.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 52%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Roma had a probability of 23.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
-0.12) 
0.09) 
