| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 22 | Hartlepool United | 5 | -7 | 2 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | 5 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 5 | -7 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 22 | Hartlepool United | 5 | -7 | 2 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | 5 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 5 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rochdale | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 40.71% ( | 26.53% ( | 32.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.89% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.1% ( | 52.89% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.49% ( | 74.5% ( |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.42% ( | 25.58% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.54% ( | 60.45% ( |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.72% ( | 30.27% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.55% ( | 66.44% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rochdale | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.55% 2-1 @ 8.6% ( 2-0 @ 7.2% ( 3-1 @ 3.91% ( 3-0 @ 3.27% ( 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 4-1 @ 1.33% ( 4-0 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 2.39% Total : 40.7% | 1-1 @ 12.61% 0-0 @ 7.74% ( 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 3-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.52% | 0-1 @ 9.25% ( 1-2 @ 7.54% ( 0-2 @ 5.53% ( 1-3 @ 3% ( 0-3 @ 2.2% ( 2-3 @ 2.05% ( Other @ 3.2% Total : 32.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 37 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 74 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 69 |
| 3 | Stevenage | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 67 |
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 38 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 58 | 36 | 22 | 66 |
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 32 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Salford City | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 60 | 43 | 17 | 62 |
| 7 | Bradford CityBradford | 37 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 61 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 58 |
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 56 |
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 55 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 51 |
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 51 |
| 13 | Walsall | 37 | 11 | 16 | 10 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 49 |
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 49 |
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 47 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 44 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 43 |
| 19 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 42 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 38 |
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 38 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 37 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 36 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 38 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 41 | 67 | -26 | 32 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 38 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 26 |
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