Slovenia have won every one of their previous meetings with San Marino, and there is seemingly no real chance of that run coming to an end on Sunday, particularly given how well they played in the second half against Kazakhstan.
Kekci have always won by at least a four-goal margin when they have faced La Serenissima at home in the past, and so we expect them to win by a similar scoreline this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 87.83%. A draw had a probability of 9% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 3.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 3-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.29%) and 4-0 (10.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.23%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (1.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.
-0.05) 
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