Romania have still been prone to the odd defensive lapse despite their recent spate of clean sheets, and Sesko will need no second invitation to make the hosts pay for such frailties.
Failure to pick up victories away from home continues to bedevil Kek's side, though, and we expect Romania to do enough to claim a draw in front of their own fans.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 36.61%. A win for Slovenia had a probability of 35.53% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Slovenia win was 0-1 (10.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
0.26) 
-0.27) 
