MX23RW : Wednesday, October 18 04:30:10| >> :300:86500:86500:
Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 12
Oct 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval
Caernarfon
3 - 0
Aberystwyth
Clarke (59'), Davies (66'), Lloyd (85')
Cartwright (4'), Donohue (63'), Gosset (78')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Thorn (28'), H (82')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Aberystwyth Town.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Newtown 4-0 Caernarfon
Saturday, October 7 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Aberystwyth Town

All competitions
Last Game: Aberystwyth 1-1 Connah's Quay
Friday, October 6 at 8pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
43.2% (1.592 1.59) 24.89% (-0.038 -0.04) 31.91% (-1.556 -1.56)
Both teams to score 56.99% (-0.434 -0.43)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.83% (-0.32100000000001 -0.32)46.16% (0.317 0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.54% (-0.302 -0.3)68.46% (0.30099999999999 0.3)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.6% (0.60900000000001 0.61)21.4% (-0.611 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.61% (0.93 0.93)54.39% (-0.933 -0.93)
Aberystwyth Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.5% (-1.125 -1.13)27.5% (1.122 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37% (-1.473 -1.47)63% (1.47 1.47)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 43.2%
    Aberystwyth Town 31.91%
    Draw 24.89%
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
1-0 @ 9.07% (0.285 0.29)
2-1 @ 9.03% (0.166 0.17)
2-0 @ 7% (0.344 0.34)
3-1 @ 4.64% (0.168 0.17)
3-0 @ 3.6% (0.239 0.24)
3-2 @ 3% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.79% (0.096 0.1)
4-0 @ 1.39% (0.116 0.12)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 43.2%
1-1 @ 11.71%
0-0 @ 5.88% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.83% (-0.077 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.29% (-0.035 -0.04)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.89%
0-1 @ 7.6% (-0.14 -0.14)
1-2 @ 7.56% (-0.242 -0.24)
0-2 @ 4.9% (-0.252 -0.25)
1-3 @ 3.25% (-0.212 -0.21)
2-3 @ 2.51% (-0.116 -0.12)
0-3 @ 2.11% (-0.18 -0.18)
1-4 @ 1.05% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 31.91%

Head to Head
Sep 9, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Aberystwyth
2-4
Caernarfon
Owen (4'), Lewis (26')
Bradford (40'), Jones (66')
Clarke (6', 19'), Davies (71', 90+2')
Lloyd (34')
Apr 22, 2023 12.45pm
Gameweek 10
Aberystwyth
3-2
Caernarfon
Arnison (39'), Cadwallader (55'), Flint (90+4')
Hughes (2'), Bell (45+1')
Mar 17, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 5
Caernarfon
0-1
Aberystwyth
Flint (41')
Jan 21, 2023 5.15pm
Gameweek 22
Aberystwyth
2-1
Caernarfon
Arnison (8'), Flint (77')
Alun (89')
Oct 21, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 12
Caernarfon
2-1
Aberystwyth
O'Rourke (20'), Marsh-Hughes (73')
Litchfield (81')
rhs 2.0
MLS Apple TV+ Messi promo
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1The New SaintsNew Saints119203782929
2Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay1181231141725
3Newtown AFCNewtown127142213922
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon126242219320
5Cardiff MUCardiff MU125431316-319
6Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont125251718-117
7Bala TownBala Town1144388016
8Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest123451423-913
9Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd12336411-712
10Barry Town UnitedBarry122371220-89
11Colwyn Bay112271220-88
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth12129628-225
> Welsh Premier League Full Table
MLS Apple TV+ Messi promo
New Apple Music general promo - 300x250
Media Mole RHS news promo
Phillip Schofield 'becomes top target for Celebrity Big Brother'
Phillip Schofield 'becomes top target for Celebrity Big Brother'
The Masked Singer films Christmas special?
The Masked Singer films Christmas special?
The X Factor winner Matt Terry opens up on "dark time" after show
The X Factor winner Matt Terry opens up on "dark time" after show
Picture Spoilers: Next week on Coronation Street (Oct 23-25)
Picture Spoilers: Next week on Coronation Street (Oct 23-25)
In Full: Netflix UK's most-watched TV shows and films (Oct 9-15)
In Full: Netflix UK's most-watched TV shows and films (Oct 9-15)

Subscribe to our newsletter


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!