Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gillingham | Draw | Northampton Town |
| 30.99% ( | 28.48% ( | 40.53% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.58% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.39% ( | 60.61% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.3% ( | 80.7% ( |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.48% ( | 35.52% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.71% ( | 72.29% ( |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.69% ( | 29.31% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.72% ( | 65.28% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gillingham | Draw | Northampton Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.77% ( 2-1 @ 6.84% ( 2-0 @ 5.58% ( 3-1 @ 2.36% ( 3-0 @ 1.92% ( 3-2 @ 1.45% ( Other @ 2.06% Total : 30.98% | 1-1 @ 13.22% 0-0 @ 10.41% ( 2-2 @ 4.2% ( Other @ 0.64% Total : 28.47% | 0-1 @ 12.77% ( 1-2 @ 8.12% ( 0-2 @ 7.84% ( 1-3 @ 3.32% ( 0-3 @ 3.21% ( 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 1-4 @ 1.02% 0-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.55% Total : 40.52% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 40 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 54 | 27 | 27 | 81 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 41 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 55 | 38 | 17 | 73 |
| 3 | Stockport CountyStockport | 41 | 20 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 33 | 24 | 70 |
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 41 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 70 |
| 5 | Stevenage | 40 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 70 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 40 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 68 |
| 7 | Salford City | 41 | 19 | 9 | 13 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 66 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 40 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 65 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 41 | 18 | 7 | 16 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 61 |
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 41 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 57 |
| 11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 41 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 53 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 40 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 51 |
| 13 | Walsall | 41 | 11 | 18 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 51 |
| 14 | Grimsby Town | 40 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 51 |
| 15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 41 | 15 | 6 | 20 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 51 |
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 40 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 48 |
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 42 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 45 | 51 | -6 | 47 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 40 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 47 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 41 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 47 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 41 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 42 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 40 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 41 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 41 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 48 | 70 | -22 | 39 |
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 41 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 38 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 41 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 33 |
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