Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 39.48%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (10.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gillingham | Draw | Barrow |
| 32.02% ( | 28.5% ( | 39.48% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.83% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.56% ( | 60.44% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.42% ( | 80.57% ( |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.32% ( | 34.68% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.59% ( | 71.4% ( |
| Barrow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.16% ( | 29.83% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.08% ( | 65.92% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gillingham | Draw | Barrow |
| 1-0 @ 10.95% ( 2-1 @ 7.02% ( 2-0 @ 5.8% ( 3-1 @ 2.48% ( 3-0 @ 2.05% ( 3-2 @ 1.5% Other @ 2.22% Total : 32.01% | 1-1 @ 13.25% 0-0 @ 10.34% ( 2-2 @ 4.24% ( Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.49% | 0-1 @ 12.51% 1-2 @ 8.02% ( 0-2 @ 7.57% ( 1-3 @ 3.23% ( 0-3 @ 3.05% ( 2-3 @ 1.71% ( 1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0-4 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.49% Total : 39.48% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 38 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 77 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 39 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 70 |
| 3 | Stevenage | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 52 | 35 | 17 | 68 |
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 39 | 18 | 12 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 66 |
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 39 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 64 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 64 |
| 7 | Salford City | 39 | 18 | 9 | 12 | 61 | 44 | 17 | 63 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 59 | 46 | 13 | 61 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 39 | 17 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 58 |
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 39 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 57 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 51 |
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 51 |
| 13 | Walsall | 39 | 11 | 17 | 11 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 50 |
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 50 |
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 48 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 40 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 46 |
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 38 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 45 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 44 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 39 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 44 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 38 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 39 |
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 39 | 9 | 11 | 19 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 38 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 39 | 9 | 10 | 20 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 37 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 39 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 35 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 39 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 59 | -25 | 29 |
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