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Walsall
Dec 29, 2022 at 7pm UK at Alexandra Stadium
Crewe
0 - 3
Carlisle

Mellor (49')
Offord (51')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Feeney (6'), Moxon (46'), Dennis (72')
Feeney (26')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's League Two clash between Crewe Alexandra and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Crewe Alexandra 0-1 Carlisle United

Carlisle will be bidding to make it back-to-back victories on Thursday, and we are backing the visitors to triumph here. Crewe have lost their last three during a disappointing run, and we are predicting a narrow defeat for the home side in this contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Crewe AlexandraDrawCarlisle United
31.38% (0.029 0.03) 26.05% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06) 42.56% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Both teams to score 52.91% (0.192 0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.63% (0.246 0.25)51.36% (-0.25 -0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.81% (0.213 0.21)73.18% (-0.217 -0.22)
Crewe Alexandra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.56% (0.142 0.14)30.43% (-0.145 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.36% (0.17 0.17)66.64% (-0.173 -0.17)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.05% (0.11800000000001 0.12)23.94% (-0.123 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.83% (0.172 0.17)58.17% (-0.17400000000001 -0.17)
Score Analysis
    Crewe Alexandra 31.38%
    Carlisle United 42.55%
    Draw 26.05%
Crewe AlexandraDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 8.67% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-1 @ 7.37% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.16% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.92% (0.017 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.09% (0.019 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.05% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 31.38%
1-1 @ 12.39% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 7.29% (-0.073 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5.27% (0.028 0.03)
3-3 @ 1% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.05%
0-1 @ 10.41% (-0.07 -0.07)
1-2 @ 8.86% (0.011999999999999 0.01)
0-2 @ 7.45% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.22% (0.02 0.02)
0-3 @ 3.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 2.51% (0.022 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.51% (0.013 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.27% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 42.55%

How you voted: Crewe vs Carlisle

Crewe Alexandra
38.9%
Draw
0.0%
Carlisle United
61.1%
18
Head to Head
Oct 1, 2022 3pm
Jan 1, 2020 3pm
Crewe
4-1
Carlisle
Ainley (17'), Powell (26', 31'), Anene (34')
Dale (72')
Iredale (56')
Sagaf (24'), Loft (30')
Oct 12, 2019 3pm
Carlisle
2-4
Crewe
Hope (59'), Elliott (64')
Hunt (7'), Powell (27'), Porter (78'), Gethin (85' og.)
Nolan (86')
Feb 12, 2019 7.45pm
Crewe
2-1
Carlisle
Porter (3'), Miller (73')
Ng (31'), Ray (44')
Miller (29')
O'Hare (34'), Hope (65'), Grainger (72'), Cullen (92')
Devitt (18')
Nov 10, 2018 3pm
First Round
Crewe
0-1
Carlisle

Nolan (29'), Hunt (61')
Devitt (90')
Bennett (18'), Devitt (83'), Yates (84'), Gerrard (90')
rhs 2.0
Todays Game Header Right
Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leyton Orient29186537172060
2Stevenage27168339182156
3Carlisle UnitedCarlisle29149648282051
4Northampton TownNorthampton28148642281450
5Salford City29146940291148
6Mansfield TownMansfield2812794137443
7Stockport CountyStockport281261039271242
8Swindon TownSwindon2811983730742
9Bradford CityBradford2711973226642
10BarrowBarrow29125123438-441
11Sutton UnitedSutton29117112835-740
12AFC Wimbledon2810993029139
13Walsall2610883023738
14Tranmere RoversTranmere28108103126538
15Doncaster RoversDoncaster27114123140-937
16Grimsby Town2596102932-333
17Colchester UnitedColchester3087153038-831
18Crewe AlexandraCrewe2671092132-1131
19Newport CountyNewport2778122631-529
20Harrogate TownHarrogate2776143341-827
21Crawley TownCrawley2667132942-1325
22Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool2967162952-2325
23Gillingham2759131531-1624
24Rochdale2955192344-2120

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