Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 31.38% ( | 26.05% ( | 42.56% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.91% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.63% ( | 51.36% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.81% ( | 73.18% ( |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.56% ( | 30.43% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.36% ( | 66.64% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.05% ( | 23.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.83% ( | 58.17% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 8.67% ( 2-1 @ 7.37% ( 2-0 @ 5.16% ( 3-1 @ 2.92% ( 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 3-0 @ 2.05% ( Other @ 3.13% Total : 31.38% | 1-1 @ 12.39% ( 0-0 @ 7.29% ( 2-2 @ 5.27% ( 3-3 @ 1% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.05% | 0-1 @ 10.41% ( 1-2 @ 8.86% ( 0-2 @ 7.45% ( 1-3 @ 4.22% ( 0-3 @ 3.55% ( 2-3 @ 2.51% ( 1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0-4 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 2.79% Total : 42.55% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 60 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 56 |
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 28 | 20 | 51 |
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 50 |
| 5 | Salford City | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 48 |
| 6 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 43 |
| 7 | Stockport CountyStockport | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 42 |
| 8 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 42 |
| 9 | Bradford CityBradford | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 42 |
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 39 |
| 13 | Walsall | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 38 |
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 38 |
| 15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 37 |
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 33 |
| 17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 31 |
| 18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 31 |
| 19 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 27 |
| 21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 25 |
| 23 | Gillingham | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 24 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 29 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 20 |
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