Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gateshead win with a probability of 42.45%. A win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 32.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gateshead win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.86%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest Aldershot Town win was 2-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gateshead would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aldershot Town | Draw | Gateshead | 
| 32.7% (  -0) | 24.85% (  0) | 42.45% (  -0) | 
| Both teams to score 57.44% (  -0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 54.29% (  -0.01) | 45.71% (  0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 31.97% (  -0.01) | 68.03% (  0.01) | 
| Aldershot Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.22% (  -0.01) | 26.78% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.94% (  -0.01) | 62.06% (  0.01) | 
| Gateshead Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.45% (  -0) | 21.55% (  0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.37% (  -0.01) | 54.63% (  0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Aldershot Town | Draw | Gateshead | 
| 2-1 @ 7.69% (  -0) 1-0 @ 7.6% (  0) 2-0 @ 5.01% (  0) 3-1 @ 3.38% (  -0) 3-2 @ 2.59% (  -0) 3-0 @ 2.2% (  -0) 4-1 @ 1.11% (  -0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 32.7% | 1-1 @ 11.67% (  0.01) 2-2 @ 5.9% (  -0) 0-0 @ 5.77% (  0) 3-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.85% | 1-2 @ 8.96% 0-1 @ 8.86% (  0) 0-2 @ 6.8% (  0) 1-3 @ 4.58% (  -0) 0-3 @ 3.48% (  0) 2-3 @ 3.02% (  -0) 1-4 @ 1.76% 0-4 @ 1.33% 2-4 @ 1.16% (  -0) Other @ 2.52% Total : 42.45% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Wrexham | 45 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 115 | 42 | 73 | 110 | 
| 2 | Notts County | 45 | 32 | 10 | 3 | 116 | 41 | 75 | 106 | 
| 3 | Chesterfield | 45 | 24 | 9 | 12 | 77 | 52 | 25 | 81 | 
| 4 | Woking | 44 | 23 | 10 | 11 | 70 | 47 | 23 | 79 | 
| 5 | Barnet | 45 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 75 | 65 | 10 | 74 | 
| 6 | Bromley | 45 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 67 | 52 | 15 | 70 | 
| 7 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 44 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 69 | 
| 8 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 45 | 19 | 9 | 17 | 55 | 44 | 11 | 66 | 
| 9 | Eastleigh | 45 | 19 | 9 | 17 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 66 | 
| 10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 45 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 62 | 63 | -1 | 60 | 
| 11 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 59 | 72 | -13 | 60 | 
| 12 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 44 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 58 | 
| 13 | Halifax TownHalifax | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 57 | 
| 14 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 57 | 
| 15 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 45 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 55 | 
| 16 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 65 | 90 | -25 | 54 | 
| 17 | Gateshead | 44 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 61 | 62 | -1 | 53 | 
| 18 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 45 | 14 | 10 | 21 | 63 | 75 | -12 | 52 | 
| 19 | York City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 54 | 62 | -8 | 50 | 
| 20 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 50 | 
| 21 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 45 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 57 | 79 | -22 | 47 | 
| R | Yeovil TownYeovil | 45 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 40 | 
| R | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 45 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 48 | 85 | -37 | 34 | 
| R | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 45 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 45 | 100 | -55 | 25 | 
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