Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haiti win with a probability of 50.45%. A win for Montserrat had a probability of 27.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Haiti win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.2%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Montserrat win was 2-1 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Haiti would win this match.