Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montserrat win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Bermuda had a probability of 37.79% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Montserrat win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.31%) and 3-1 (4.88%). The likeliest Bermuda win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montserrat would win this match.