Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 41.88%. A win for Gateshead had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.79%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Gateshead win was 2-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gateshead | Draw | Wrexham |
| 34.03% ( | 24.09% ( | 41.88% |
| Both teams to score 60.56% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.18% ( | 41.82% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.78% ( | 64.22% ( |
| Gateshead Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.86% ( | 24.13% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.56% ( | 58.44% ( |
| Wrexham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.82% ( | 20.17% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.53% ( | 52.46% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gateshead | Draw | Wrexham |
| 2-1 @ 7.87% 1-0 @ 6.92% ( 2-0 @ 4.92% 3-1 @ 3.73% 3-2 @ 2.99% ( 3-0 @ 2.33% 4-1 @ 1.33% 4-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.88% Total : 34.03% | 1-1 @ 11.07% ( 2-2 @ 6.3% 0-0 @ 4.87% ( 3-3 @ 1.59% Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.08% | 1-2 @ 8.87% 0-1 @ 7.79% ( 0-2 @ 6.24% ( 1-3 @ 4.73% ( 2-3 @ 3.36% ( 0-3 @ 3.33% 1-4 @ 1.89% 2-4 @ 1.35% 0-4 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.98% Total : 41.88% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Notts County | 34 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 88 | 30 | 58 | 83 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 83 | 30 | 53 | 78 |
| 3 | Woking | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 58 | 36 | 22 | 61 |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 55 |
| 5 | Barnet | 31 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 59 | 53 | 6 | 53 |
| 6 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 50 |
| 7 | Eastleigh | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 50 |
| 8 | Bromley | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 47 |
| 9 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 46 |
| 10 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 45 |
| 11 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 45 |
| 12 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 42 |
| 13 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 42 |
| 14 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 47 | 56 | -9 | 38 |
| 15 | Halifax TownHalifax | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 37 |
| 16 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 36 |
| 17 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 35 |
| 18 | York City | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 33 |
| 19 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 47 | 73 | -26 | 33 |
| 20 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 30 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 32 |
| 21 | Gateshead | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 32 |
| 22 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 29 |
| 23 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 38 | 63 | -25 | 26 |
| 24 | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 22 |
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