Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 55.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Barrow had a probability of 20.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a Barrow win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Barrow |
| 55.18% ( | 24.55% | 20.27% |
| Both teams to score 47.49% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.43% ( | 53.57% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.92% ( | 75.08% ( |
| Mansfield Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.67% ( | 19.33% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.89% ( | 51.11% ( |
| Barrow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.87% ( | 41.13% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.33% ( | 77.67% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Barrow |
| 1-0 @ 13.06% 2-0 @ 10.73% 2-1 @ 9.54% 3-0 @ 5.88% 3-1 @ 5.23% 4-0 @ 2.42% 3-2 @ 2.32% 4-1 @ 2.15% 4-2 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.89% Total : 55.16% | 1-1 @ 11.61% 0-0 @ 7.95% ( 2-2 @ 4.24% Other @ 0.76% Total : 24.55% | 0-1 @ 7.07% 1-2 @ 5.16% 0-2 @ 3.14% 1-3 @ 1.53% 2-3 @ 1.26% 0-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.19% Total : 20.27% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 70 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 57 |
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 55 |
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 52 |
| 5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Stockport CountyStockport | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 51 |
| 7 | Salford City | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 49 |
| 8 | Bradford CityBradford | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 29 | 8 | 48 |
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 47 |
| 10 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 31 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 46 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 45 |
| 12 | BarrowBarrow | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 44 |
| 13 | AFC Wimbledon | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 42 |
| 14 | Walsall | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 41 |
| 15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 41 |
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 36 |
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 36 |
| 18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 35 |
| 19 | Newport CountyNewport | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 34 |
| 20 | Gillingham | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 30 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 29 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 27 |
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 26 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 32 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 21 |
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