

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 55.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 20.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barrow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barrow | Draw | Hartlepool United |
| 55.36% ( | 24.35% ( | 20.29% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.11% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.24% ( | 52.76% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.61% ( | 74.39% ( |
| Barrow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.04% ( | 18.96% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.52% ( | 50.48% ( |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.36% ( | 40.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.77% ( | 77.23% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Barrow | Draw | Hartlepool United |
| 1-0 @ 12.8% ( 2-0 @ 10.65% ( 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 3-0 @ 5.91% ( 3-1 @ 5.32% ( 4-0 @ 2.46% ( 3-2 @ 2.4% ( 4-1 @ 2.21% ( 4-2 @ 1% ( Other @ 3.02% Total : 55.35% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( 0-0 @ 7.7% ( 2-2 @ 4.32% ( Other @ 0.79% Total : 24.34% | 0-1 @ 6.94% ( 1-2 @ 5.19% ( 0-2 @ 3.12% ( 1-3 @ 1.56% ( 2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0-3 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 1.25% Total : 20.29% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 45 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 90 |
| P | Stevenage | 45 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 60 | 39 | 21 | 82 |
| 3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 45 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 80 |
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 78 |
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 45 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 65 | 42 | 23 | 75 |
| 6 | Salford City | 45 | 22 | 9 | 14 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 75 |
| 7 | Bradford CityBradford | 44 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 58 | 39 | 19 | 75 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 55 | 15 | 72 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 8 | 19 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 62 |
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 59 | 54 | 5 | 58 |
| 11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 58 |
| 12 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 58 |
| 13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 57 |
| 14 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 56 |
| 15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 55 |
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 44 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 54 |
| 17 | Walsall | 45 | 11 | 19 | 15 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 52 |
| 18 | Gillingham | 45 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 52 |
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 51 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 12 | 13 | 20 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 49 |
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 48 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 46 |
| R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 45 | 9 | 15 | 21 | 51 | 77 | -26 | 42 |
| R | Rochdale | 45 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 37 |
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