Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 40.86%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Barrow |
| 32.35% ( | 26.79% ( | 40.86% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.94% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.95% ( | 54.05% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.52% ( | 75.48% ( |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.86% ( | 31.13% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.54% ( | 67.46% ( |
| Barrow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.97% ( | 26.02% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.94% ( | 61.05% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Barrow |
| 1-0 @ 9.45% ( 2-1 @ 7.43% ( 2-0 @ 5.52% ( 3-1 @ 2.89% ( 3-0 @ 2.15% ( 3-2 @ 1.94% ( Other @ 2.97% Total : 32.35% | 1-1 @ 12.72% ( 0-0 @ 8.1% ( 2-2 @ 5% ( Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.78% | 0-1 @ 10.9% ( 1-2 @ 8.57% ( 0-2 @ 7.34% ( 1-3 @ 3.84% ( 0-3 @ 3.29% ( 2-3 @ 2.24% ( 1-4 @ 1.29% ( 0-4 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 2.26% Total : 40.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 40 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 54 | 27 | 27 | 81 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 41 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 55 | 38 | 17 | 73 |
| 3 | Stockport CountyStockport | 41 | 20 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 33 | 24 | 70 |
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 41 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 70 |
| 5 | Stevenage | 40 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 70 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 40 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 68 |
| 7 | Salford City | 41 | 19 | 9 | 13 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 66 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 40 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 65 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 41 | 18 | 7 | 16 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 61 |
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 41 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 57 |
| 11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 41 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 53 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 40 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 51 |
| 13 | Walsall | 41 | 11 | 18 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 51 |
| 14 | Grimsby Town | 40 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 51 |
| 15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 41 | 15 | 6 | 20 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 51 |
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 40 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 48 |
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 42 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 45 | 51 | -6 | 47 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 40 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 47 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 41 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 47 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 41 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 42 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 40 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 41 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 41 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 48 | 70 | -22 | 39 |
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 41 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 38 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 41 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 33 |
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