Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 51.49%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 21.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barrow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barrow | Draw | Colchester United |
| 51.49% ( | 26.96% ( | 21.55% ( |
| Both teams to score 42.75% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.31% ( | 60.69% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.24% ( | 80.76% ( |
| Barrow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.2% ( | 23.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.04% ( | 57.96% ( |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.11% ( | 43.89% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.96% ( | 80.03% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Barrow | Draw | Colchester United |
| 1-0 @ 14.99% ( 2-0 @ 10.76% ( 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 3-0 @ 5.15% ( 3-1 @ 4.24% ( 4-0 @ 1.85% ( 3-2 @ 1.75% ( 4-1 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 2.37% Total : 51.49% | 1-1 @ 12.34% ( 0-0 @ 10.44% ( 2-2 @ 3.65% ( Other @ 0.52% Total : 26.95% | 0-1 @ 8.6% ( 1-2 @ 5.08% ( 0-2 @ 3.54% ( 1-3 @ 1.4% ( 2-3 @ 1% ( 0-3 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 0.95% Total : 21.55% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 57 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 51 |
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 49 |
| 5 | Salford City | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 42 |
| 8 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 41 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | Stockport CountyStockport | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 39 |
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 38 |
| 14 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 37 |
| 15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 33 |
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 31 |
| 18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 30 |
| 19 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 25 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 24 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 22 |
| 23 | Gillingham | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 21 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
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