Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 57.79%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 19.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.4%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 1-0 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Mansfield Town |
| 19.38% ( | 22.83% ( | 57.79% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.26% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.17% ( | 47.84% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.98% ( | 70.02% ( |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.23% ( | 38.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.49% ( | 75.51% ( |
| Mansfield Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.73% ( | 16.28% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.18% ( | 45.83% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Mansfield Town |
| 1-0 @ 5.98% ( 2-1 @ 5.14% ( 2-0 @ 2.83% ( 3-1 @ 1.62% ( 3-2 @ 1.47% ( Other @ 2.33% Total : 19.38% | 1-1 @ 10.85% ( 0-0 @ 6.31% ( 2-2 @ 4.67% ( Other @ 1% Total : 22.82% | 0-1 @ 11.45% ( 0-2 @ 10.4% ( 1-2 @ 9.85% ( 0-3 @ 6.29% ( 1-3 @ 5.96% ( 0-4 @ 2.86% ( 2-3 @ 2.83% ( 1-4 @ 2.71% ( 2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0-5 @ 1.04% ( 1-5 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.13% Total : 57.78% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 38 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 77 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 39 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 70 |
| 3 | Stevenage | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 52 | 35 | 17 | 68 |
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 39 | 18 | 12 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 66 |
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 39 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 64 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 64 |
| 7 | Salford City | 39 | 18 | 9 | 12 | 61 | 44 | 17 | 63 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 59 | 46 | 13 | 61 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 39 | 17 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 58 |
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 39 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 57 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 51 |
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 51 |
| 13 | Walsall | 39 | 11 | 17 | 11 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 50 |
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 50 |
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 48 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 40 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 46 |
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 38 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 45 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 44 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 39 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 44 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 38 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 39 |
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 39 | 9 | 11 | 19 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 38 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 39 | 9 | 10 | 20 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 37 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 39 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 35 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 39 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 59 | -25 | 29 |
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