Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Doncaster Rovers win with a probability of 41.78%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Doncaster Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Doncaster Rovers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Doncaster Rovers | Draw | Crawley Town | 
| 41.78% | 26.24% | 31.98% (  -0) | 
| Both teams to score 52.56% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 48.08% | 51.91% (  -0) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 26.33% | 73.66% (  -0) | 
| Doncaster Rovers Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.42% | 24.58% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.93% | 59.07% (  -0) | 
| Crawley Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.69% (  -0) | 30.31% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.51% (  -0) | 66.49% (  -0) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Doncaster Rovers | Draw | Crawley Town | 
| 1-0 @ 10.45% 2-1 @ 8.76% 2-0 @ 7.34% 3-1 @ 4.1% 3-0 @ 3.43% 3-2 @ 2.45% 4-1 @ 1.44% 4-0 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.63% Total : 41.78% | 1-1 @ 12.47% 0-0 @ 7.45% (  -0) 2-2 @ 5.23% 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.23% | 0-1 @ 8.89% 1-2 @ 7.45% 0-2 @ 5.31% (  -0) 1-3 @ 2.96% 0-3 @ 2.11% 2-3 @ 2.08% Other @ 3.17% Total : 31.98% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 36 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 73 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 36 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 67 | 
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 37 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 58 | 35 | 23 | 66 | 
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 37 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 66 | 
| 5 | Bradford CityBradford | 37 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 61 | 
| 6 | Stockport CountyStockport | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 60 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 59 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 56 | 
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 55 | 
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 52 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 51 | 
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 37 | 15 | 6 | 16 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 51 | 
| 13 | Walsall | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 48 | 
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 48 | 
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 45 | 
| 16 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 | 
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 | 
| 18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 42 | 
| 19 | Gillingham | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 41 | 
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 38 | 
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 36 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 39 | 59 | -20 | 33 | 
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 66 | -26 | 31 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 26 | 
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