

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 49.07%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Barrow had a probability of 24.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Barrow win it was 0-1 (8.44%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stevenage | Draw | Barrow | 
| 49.07% (  0.09) | 26.35% (  -0.03) | 24.58% (  -0.07) | 
| Both teams to score 47.49% (  0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 43.8% (  0.04) | 56.19% (  -0.05) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 22.75% (  0.03) | 77.24% (  -0.04) | 
| Stevenage Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.04% (  0.06) | 22.95% (  -0.06) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.26% (  0.09) | 56.73% (  -0.1) | 
| Barrow Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 61.64% (  -0.04) | 38.36% (  0.03) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.88% (  -0.03) | 75.11% (  0.03) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Stevenage | Draw | Barrow | 
| 1-0 @ 12.95% 2-0 @ 9.54% (  0.02) 2-1 @ 9.14% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 4.68% (  0.02) 3-1 @ 4.48% (  0.01) 3-2 @ 2.15% (  0) 4-0 @ 1.72% (  0.01) 4-1 @ 1.65% (  0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 49.06% | 1-1 @ 12.41% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.8% (  -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.38% Other @ 0.75% Total : 26.34% | 0-1 @ 8.44% (  -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.95% (  -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.04% (  -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.9% (  -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% (  -0) 0-3 @ 1.29% (  -0.01) Other @ 1.56% Total : 24.58% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 46 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 91 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 46 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 85 | 
| P | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 83 | 
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 79 | 
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 76 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 61 | 43 | 18 | 76 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 75 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 72 | 55 | 17 | 75 | 
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 62 | 
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 61 | 
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 61 | 
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 58 | 
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 58 | 
| 14 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 58 | 
| 15 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53 | 56 | -3 | 57 | 
| 16 | Walsall | 46 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 55 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 55 | 
| 18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 55 | 
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 52 | 
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 49 | 
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 48 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 46 | 
| R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 52 | 78 | -26 | 43 | 
| R | Rochdale | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 38 | 
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